Here is the 2nd installment of the Final Four Semi-Final breakdown and predictions. This will, no doubt be the marquee game of the tournament, possibly outshining the Final on Monday due to the history and parallels of the two programs. Remember back in January when I pit UNC and KU head to head to see who was the superior program. UNC was, and is, but if KU is to make a significant challenge, Saturday would be a good time to start. Don’t forget the Golden Rule; always choose the opposite.

PhotobucketPhotobucket
North Carolina vs Kansas
(8:47pm EST/7:47 San Antonio)

Tale of the Tape

Record:
North Carolina=36-2
Kansas=35-3
Advantage=North Carolina

PPG:
North Carolina=89.2
Kansas= 80.6
Advantage=North Carolina

OPP PPG:
North Carolina=72.9
Kansas=61.4
Advantage=Kansas

APG:
North Carolina=17.1
Kansas=18.2
Advantage=Kansas

RPG:
North Carolina=43.7
Kansas=38.6
Advantage=North Carolina

SPG:
North Carolina=8.2
Kansas=8.8
Advantage=Kansas

BPG:
North Carolina=4.5
Kansas=5.9
Advantage=Kansas

FG%:
North Carolina=48.2%
Kansas=50.5%
Advantage=Kansas

TO’s:
North Carolina=14.3
Kansas=13.0
Advantage=Kansas

A/TO’s:
North Carolina=1.2/1
Kansas=1.4/1
Advantage=Kansas

FT%:
North Carolina=75.5%
Kansas=69.6%
Advantage=North Carolina

3PT%:
North Carolina=37.9%
Kansas=40.1%
Advantage=Kansas

RPI:
North Carolina=0.5959 (#5)
Kansas=0.5653 (#36)
Advantage=North Carolina

Last 15:
North Carolina=15-0
Kansas=13-2
Advantage=North Carolina

Point Guard
Lawson vs Robinson
Advantage=North Carolina

Shooting Guard
Ginyard vs Chalmers
Advantage=Kansas

Small Forward
Ellington vs Rush
Advantage=Toss Up

Power Forward
Stepheson vs Jackson
Advantage=North Carolina

Center
Hansbrough vs Arthur
Advantage=North Carolina

Bench
Advantage=Kansas

Coaching
Roy Williams vs Bill Self
Advantage=North Carolina

According to the objective stats, Kansas held an 8-6 advantage over North Carolina. The subjective material (my opinions) gave UNC the advantage, 4-2-1 based on personnel. North Carolina cruised through the Sweet 16, then outlasted Louisville in the Elite 8. All of those games were played in the state of North Carolina. The Tar Heels will now have to travel to Big 12 Country to take on the Jayhawks. Look for the key matchup to be all of Kansas’ big men against Tyler Hansbrough. The Jayhawks will have plenty of bodies to throw against the All American, but they can’t afford to give him free throws. He makes them at an 80% clip. The Tar Heels should have an advantage in that department due to the fact that Hansbrough does not wear down. Another key matchup will be Russell Robinson’s ability to slow Tywon Lawson. Bill Self loves the combo guard position, but the 3-headed monster has yet to see the speed they will when they try to make Lawson move laterally instead of vertically. There will be times when Sherron Collins is playing head up with Lawson, just as they did all through AAU. That will be interesting since they’re both built like pit bulls, unfortunately, neither is at 100%.

Final Analysis: If Rush can knock down open shots and regain his aggressiveness from the Big 12 Tournament, that would be important for Kansas. UNC will have most of the pressure on their shoulders, but led by Tyler Hansbrough, they’ll more than handle it and KU. VegasInsiders has UNC favored by 2 1/2. They’ll cover that and then some. Tywon Lawson will continually break down the perimeter defense and dish to his surplus of big bodies, Stepheson, Hansbrough, and Deon Thompson. Once Kansas eventually establishes help-side defense, Lawson will kick out to Ellington and Green for open 3’s. Kansas will be back on their heels from the get-go, not recovering and playing catch up for most of the game. UNC by 12.