The coasts and all of their media donkeys are upset. Basketball purists and those “in the know”, predicted it. After a lackluster effort from UCLA, and a throttling of North Carolina, Memphis and Kansas will battle for the NCAA Championship tonight, a little after 9pm EST. Here is my final “Breakdown and Prediction” for the 2007-2008 college basketball season. It’s been fun, but never forget the creed; always pick the opposite!

Memphis vs Kansas
(9:21pm EST/8:21 San Antonio)

Tale Of The Tape

Record:
Memphis=38-1
Kansas=36-3
Advantage=Memphis

PPG:
Memphis=79.7
Kansas=81.5
Advantage=Kansas

Opp PPG:
Memphis=61.0
Kansas=61.4
Advantage=Memphis

APG:
Memphis=16.0
Kansas=18.1
Advantage=Kansas

RPG:
Memphis=40.8
Kansas=38.7
Advantage=Memphis

SPG:
Memphis=8.4
Kansas=8.8
Advantage=Kansas

Blk:
Memphis=6.2
Kansas=6.0
Advantage=Memphis

FG%:
Memphis=46.6%
Kansas=50.8%
Advantage=Kansas

TO’s:
Memphis=11.7
Kansas=13.1
Advantage=Memphis

A/TO’s:
Memphis=1.4/1
Kansas=1.4/1
Advantage=Toss-Up

FT%:
Memphis=61.3%
Kansas=69.8%
Advantage=Kansas

3PT%:
Memphis=36.1%
Kansas=39.9%
Advantage=Kansas

RPI:
Memphis=0.5764 (#12)
Kansas=0.5653 (#36)
Advantage=Memphis

Last 15:
Memphis=14-1
Kansas=13-2
Advantage=Memphis

Point Guard
Rose vs Robinson
Advantage=Memphis

Shooting Guard
Anderson vs Chalmers
Advantage=Kansas

Small Forward
Douglas-Robert vs Rush
Advantage=Toss-Up

Power Forward
Dozier vs Arthur
Advantage=Kansas

Center
Dorsey vs Jackson
Advantage=Memphis

Bench
Advantage=Kansas

Coaching
Calipari vs Self
Advantage=Toss Up

The objective stats are about as close as can be, with Memphis holding a slight, 7-6-1 record. The subjective material is close as well, with Kansas holding a 3-2-2 edge. Each team has a balanced backcourt matchup and a balanced frontcourt matchup, with Rush or Douglas-Roberts being the piece that will probably sway the vote in either direction tonight. Kansas’ bench will be deeper than Memphis’, but the chess match between Bill Self and John Calipari could decide the difference.

Final Analysis: Kansas jumped a big hurdle in beating North Carolina and Roy Williams. The fanbase let out a collective sigh of relief. Will there be a letdown? I think so. Memphis has been business as usual the entire tournament, save the Mississippi State game in the 2nd round. From the Sweet 16 to this point, they’ve annihilated their competition, almost matter-of-factly. That trend will continue tonight as they jump out to their customary 20-8 lead and Self using 2 of his timeouts in the early going. Kansas will be in a daze for the first few minutes of the contest and by the time they wake up, Memphis will be on cruise control. Towards the end of the 1st half and the beginning of the 2nd, Kansas will give it everything they have in cutting into the lead, but will expend all their energy and be happy just getting to that point. Look for Memphis to put their foot on the gas for the last 8 minutes of the game and win this one going away, 85-74.